Lower Brier is better. The grey row is the House on the same positions.
| # | Player | Brier | Positions | vs House |
|---|
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Every day you get five positions from real rated games on Lichess, with the players' ratings and time control. You don't find the best move. You price White's expected score in this game, as it was actually played out.
Expected score = P(win) × 1 + P(draw) × ½ + P(loss) × 0. If you think White wins 60%, draws 10% and loses 30%, your price is 0.60 + 0.05 = 0.65.
Each answer gets a Brier score: (your price − White's actual score)², where White's score is 1 for a win, ½ for a draw and 0 for a loss. Lower is better.
The House is a simple benchmark: Stockfish's evaluation of the position combined with the players' rating gap.
Positions come from about 20,000 public Lichess games (2017). A new set goes live at midnight Eastern.